捕鱼在线提现

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新型冠状病毒

疫情之下,经济历史性下滑,如何应对

徐瑾:疫情之中,数据惨淡。中国经济有哪些下滑趋势?如何应对?面对储蓄不断下降、超前消费的中国家庭,“稳就业”的需求大过“稳增长”。

SHIRENSHUOSIYUEZUICANREN,YEXU,TAMEIYOUTIHUIGUOYIQINGZHONGDESANYUE。

JINQI,GUANFANGGONGBUZHONGGUO1、2YUEFENDEJINGJISHUJU,DUOXIANGSHUJUCHUANGXIALISHIXINDI。ZHEIXIESHUJU,WEIWOMENGOULECHUYIQINGCHONGJIXIADEJINGJIXINGMAO。YOUSHENMEZHIDEGUANZHUDEQUSHI?

趋势之一:投资整体下滑

RUGUOCONGCHUANTONGGUANDIANLAIKAN,JINGJIYOUSANJIAMACHE,TOUZI、XIAOFEI、CHUKOU。

QIZHONG,ZUIZHONGYAODE,QISHIHAISHITOUZI。1-2YUEFEN,QUANGUOGUDINGZICHANTOUZI(BUHANNONGHU)33323YIYUAN,TONGBIXIAJIANG24.5%。FENLINGYUKAN,JICHUSHESHITOUZITONGBIXIAJIANG30.3%,ZHIZAOYETOUZIXIAJIANG31.5%,FANGDICHANKAIFATOUZIXIAJIANG16.3%。

JINGJIZHENGTICHENGXIANXIAHUAQUSHI,CHUANTONGXINGYEBIAOXIANBUJIA, 1-2YUEFENGUIMOYISHANGGONGYEZENGJIAZHITONGBIXIAJIANG13.5%。BEIBUSHAOFENXIRENSHIJIYUHOUWANGDEXINJINGJI,YEBINGBUYUQIZHONGNEIBANBIAOXIANLIANGHAO。

FENJINGJILEIXINGKAN,SIYINGQIYESHOUDAOYINGXIANGJIAODA,ZENGJIAZHIDIEFUCHAOGUO20.2%,ERGUOYOUKONGGUQIYEZUIHAO,ZENGJIAZHIXIAJIANG7.9%,GUFENZHIQIYEXIAJIANG14.2%。FUWUYEJIAODU,QUANGUOFUWUYESHENGCHANZHISHUTONGBIXIAJIANG13.0%。QIZHONG,NENGGOUTIGONGYUANCHENGFUWUDEXINGYESHOUDAOCHONGJIZUIXIAO,BIRUJINRONGYE、XINXICHUANSHU、RUANJIANHEXINXIJISHUFUWUYEYOUSUOZENGJIA,QITAXINGYEZEDOUYOUBUTONGCHENGDUXIAHUA。

BINGBUYIWAI,XIAOFEIYECHUXIANJIAODAFUDUXIAHUA。1-2YUEFEN,SHEHUIXIAOFEIPINLINGSHOUZONGE52130YIYUAN,TONGBIXIAJIANG20.5%。YUANBENBEIJIYUHOUWANGDEWANGGOU,YECHUXIANXIAHUA,QUANGUOWANGSHANGLINGSHOUE13712YIYUAN,TONGBIXIAJIANG3.0%。

捕鱼在线提现CHUKOUTONGYANGXIAHUA,YANXULEMAOYIJIUFENYILAIDEZOUSHI。1-2YUEFEN,HUOWUJINCHUKOUZONGE41238YIYUAN,TONGBIXIAJIANG9.6%。QIZHONG,CHUKOU20406YIYUAN,XIAJIANG15.9%;JINKOU20832YIYUAN,XIAJIANG2.4%,MAOYINICHA426YIYUAN。

捕鱼在线提现KEYISHUO,JINGJIJIBENPANZHENGTICHENGXIANDUANYASHIXIAHUA。HUANERYANZHI,ZHEIQISHIYESHUOMINGSHUJUMEIYOUTAIDUOFENSHI,HANWEILEZHONGGUOTONGJIXITONGDESHENGYU,YEYOUZHUYUCHANSHENGHAODEJUECE。WENTIZAIYU,JINGJIXIAHUAQUSHIHUICHIXUDUOJIU?

趋势之二:通胀抬头

MUQIANQUSHIZAIYUTONGZHANGTAITOU,YOUQISHIJUMINXIAOFEIJIAGE(CPI)HEGONGYESHENGCHANZHECHUCHANGJIAGE(PPI)ZOUSHIBEILI。ZHEIBINGBUSHIXINQUSHI,DANSHIMUQIANZHEIYIQUSHI,JIXUFENHUA。

ANZHAOSHUJU,1-2YUEFEN,QUANGUOJUMINXIAOFEIJIAGETONGBISHANGZHANG5.3%。BUCHUYIWAIDESHI,ZHUROUYIJIUSHISHANGZHANGTUILI,ZHUROUSHANGZHANG125.6%。DUIBIZHIXIA,YOUYISIDESHI,1-2YUEFEN,QUANGUOGONGYESHENGCHANZHECHUCHANGJIAGETONGBIXIAJIANG0.2%。ZHEIYISHUJU,QISHIKEYIHECIQIANZHIZAOYESHUJUYINZHENG。2YUE28RI,GUOJIATONGJIJUGONGBU2020NIAN2YUEZHIZAOYEPMI(CAIGOUJINGLIRENZHISHU),CHUANGXIAYOUTONGJIJILUZUIDIZHI35.7——50DAIBIAOJINGJIRONGKUFENJIEXIAN,YIBANZHEIGESHUJUDIYU50,JIUBIAOSHIJINGJIJINRUSHUAITUIKENENG。

捕鱼在线提现CPIYUPPIERZHEBEILI,ZHEISHUOMINGSHENME?CPIZOUGAO,SHUOMINGTONGZHANGYOUQIXIAOFEILEITONGZHANGLAILIN,LAOBAIXINGSHENGHUOFEIYONGSHANGSHENG;ERPPIZOUDI,SHUOMINGXUQIUBUZU。KEYISHUO,CPIZOUGAOYUPPIZOUDI,DOUBUSHIHAOXIAOXI。ZHEIWEIZHENGCEDAILAINANTI。

趋势之三:失业攀升

JINGJIXIAXING,SHANGXINGDE,SHISHIYELV。

GUOQU,ZHONGGUODIAOCHASHIYELVYIZHIZAIANRANBUDONG,YINCIBEISHOUZHENGYI。ZHEIYICI,SHIYELVZONGSUANYOULEBIANHUA。2YUEFEN,QUANGUOCHENGZHENDIAOCHASHIYELVWEI6.2%,31GEDACHENGSHICHENGZHENDIAOCHASHIYELVWEI5.7%。ZHIDEZHUYIDESHI,1-2YUEFEN,QUANGUOCHENGZHENXINZENGJIUYE108WANREN,ZHEIGESHUJUDUIBIGUOQU,XIAJIANGLESICHENGZUOYOU。

捕鱼在线提现TISHENGJIUYEZHIJIESHOUDUANJIUSHITUIDONGFUGONG。YIQINGCHUQI,ZAIBUSHAODIFANG,FUGONGMIANLINZHANGAI,RUJINFUGONGCHENGWEISHOUYAODONGYUANRENWU。ANZHAOFAGAIWEI3YUESHUJU,CHUHUBEIDENGGEBIESHENGFENWAI,QUANGUOQITASHENG(QU、SHI)FUGONGLVJUNYICHAOGUO90%,MOUXIESHENGFENJIEJIN100%。DANCONGYONGDIANLIANGYIJICAOGENDIAOYANLAIKAN,ZHEIYISHUJUXIANRANGUOGAO。GENGZHONGYAODESHI,ZHONGXIAOQIYEDEFUGONGLVDIYUGUIMOYISHANGQIYE,ANZHAOGONGXINBU2YUEMOSHUJU,ZHONGXIAOQIYERIFUGONGLVWEI32.8%。ERZHONGXIAOQIYE,QISHITIGONGLEZUIDUODEJIUYEGANGWEI。

ZHONGXIAOQIYEMEIFUGONG,JIUSHUOMINGJINGJIYUANQIDASHANG。

BAOJINGJIDEHEXIN,QISHISHIBAOJIUYE。ERJIUYE,ZHUYAOLAIZIMINYINGQIYEYOUQISHIZHONGXIAOQIYE。ZUIZHONG,QIYESHIJINGJIYUNXINGDEZUIJIBENZUZHI,YESHIJINGJIFUSUDEGUANJIAN。JIUYEHEMINZHONGGUANXIZUIWEIMIQIE,SHIGUANSHEHUIWENDING。GUANFANGGAOCENGKOUWEN,YEQIANGDIAOZHEIYIDIAN,“ZHIYAOJIUYEHAO,GDPZENGSUGAOYIDIANDIYIDIANDOUKEJIESHOU”。

捕鱼在线提现YOUCIKEJIAN,YAOBAOJIUYE,HEXINJIUSHIBAOQIYE,YOUQIZHONGXIAOQIYE。RUGUOYOULIRUNKONGJIAN,QIYEZIZHUFUGONGBUZAIHUAXIA。WENTIZAIYU,ZAIMEIYOUXUQIUYIJITOUZIDEQINGKUANGXIA,QIANGXINGTUIDONGFUGONG,XIAOGUOKONGPAHUIDAZHEKOU。

问题:经济目标如何达标

捕鱼在线提现HAIWAIHEZHONGGUO,HAOXIANGDALESHIJIANCHA。3YUEDEHAIWAI,LEISI2YUEDEZHONGGUO。

HAIWAIYIQINGMANYAN,QUANQIUSHICHANGBEISHOUCHONGJI。3YUE,QUANQIUJINRONGSHICHANGDUOGUOCHUXIANRONGDUAN,MEIGUO、DEGUO、FAGUOYIJIRIHANDENGGUSHI,DOUCHUXIANJULIGAODIANXIADIE20%DEJIXIANG。QUANQIUJISHUXINGXIONGSHIZHIXIA,MEILIANCHUQIANGLIJIUSHI,QUEYINFASHICHANGGENGDUODANXIN。

ZIBENSHICHANGQIQILUOLUO,CHAOEDIEQUDE,DUOSHIZHIMIANCAIFUERYI。WENTIZAIYU,JINGJIDEDUANYASHIXIAXING,KENENGJIAJUSHITIJINGJIDEQIEFUZHITONG。

捕鱼在线提现GENGYANZHONGDESHI,2YUEDEZHONGGUOJINGJI,SHIBUSHIWEILAISHIJIEDEMOYANG?BIQIJINRONGWEIJIGENGZAOGAODE,DAGAIJIUSHIJINGJIWEIJISHENZHIDAXIAOTIAOBA。

捕鱼在线提现2020NIANDUIYUZHONGGUODETESHUZHICHUZAIYU,ZHEIYINIANSHIQUANMIANJIANCHENGXIAOKANGSHEHUIHE“SHISANWU”GUIHUASHOUGUANZHINIAN。,YOU2020NIANSHIXIANGUONEISHENGCHANZONGZHI(GDP)HECHENGXIANGJUMINRENJUNSHOURUBI2010NIANFANYIFANDECHENGNUO。YEZHENGYINCI,JINGJIZHIBIAOJUBEIGENGDAYIYI。

捕鱼在线提现NEIMEZENMECAISUANDABIAO?MUQIANSHICHANGYOUBUTONGCESUAN,JIBENZAI5.3%DAO6%ZHIJIAN。RANER,QIANLIANGYUESHUJUXIAXING,BIRANLIANLEIQUANNIANJINGJI,SHIDEXIAMIANSANGEJIDUZENGSUBEIGANYALI。DANGTONGJIJURENSHIBEIWENDAOXIANGGUANWENTI,YEQIANGDIAOXUYAOKANLIANGHUIZHENGFUGONGZUOBAOGAOSHEDING,DANGXIAHENZHONGYAODESHIYAOJIXUGONGGUYIQINGFANGKONGDECHENGGUO。

ZHEIKENENGYIWEIZHE,JINGJIDEGANGXINGMUBIAO,KENENGRUANHUA;DANSHIJIUYEZUOWEISHEHUIPINGHENGQI,XIANRANHUIZHANJUGENGDAFENLIANG。

捕鱼在线提现ZAIYIQINGKAISHIDESHIHOU,YIXIEMINGXINGCANYINQIYESHUOCHENGBUGUOSANGEYUE。QIYERUCI,GERENRUGUOSANGEYUEMEIYOUSHOURU,NENGCHENGGUODUOJIU?ZHEIXIENIAN,ZHONGGUOJIATINGDEZHAIWUYIJINGJIJUPANSHENG,ZAOBUSHIQINJIANJIEYUEDEDANGNIAN,TIQIANXIAOFEI、ANYUEYUEGUANGSHIBUSHAONIANQINGRENDESHENGHUOFANGSHI。ZHONGNIANRUANJIECENGYAOYANGJIAHAIANJIE,NIANQINGRENYEBUQINGSONG。ANZHAOHUIFENGYINXING2019NIANYIXIANGDIAOCHA,ZHONGGUO90HOUYIDAIRENDEZHAIWUYUYUESHOURUBI,GAODA18.5BEI,TAMENQIANGEZHONGDAIKUANJIGOUHEXINYONGKAFAXINGJIGOUZHAIWU,RENJUNYUEHE12WANYUANRENMINBI。

MIANDUICHUXUBUDUANXIAJIANG、CHAOQIANXIAOFEIDEZHONGGUOJIATING,GONGZUOJIANGHUIFENWAIZHONGYAO。HUANERYANZHI,DUIYUZHENGCEERYAN,“WENJIUYE”DEXUQIU,ZAIWEILAIKENENGDAGUO“WENZENGZHANG”。

NIANCHU,DUIYUZHONGGUOJINGJI,JINNIANNENGFOUZAI6%ZENGZHANG,YIJINGYOUBUSHAOFENQI。RUJIN,YIQINGYIJIHAIWAISHICHANGDEBIANHUA,JIANGSHIDEZHENGCEZHENGYIGENGDAKUODA。

捕鱼在线提现JIUZHONGGUOERYAN,GENGKUANSONGDECAIZHENGZHENGCEHEHUOBIZHENGCE,BIRANZAILUSHANG。DANSHIMEILIANCHUDEJINGYANHUOXUGAOSUWOMEN,BUYAOYICIXINGBASHOUDUANYONGZU,FOUZESHOUSHANGMEIYOUTAIDUODEPAIKEYIXUAN。ZHEIGESHIHOU,GENGLINGHUODEZHENGCE,YINGGAINARUKAOLV,BIRUJIQUANMINHUOZHEYISHENGQUNTIFAFANGXIAOFEIQUAN,JIKEYITIZHENXIAOFEI,YOUKEYIWENDINGMINXIN。

捕鱼在线提现CHENGRAN,YIQINGZHONGYEYOUSHANGJI,YONGXIANCHUBUSHAOMINGXINGXINQIYE。WENTIZAIYU,BUSHAOQIYEYUANBENYIJINGMIANLINYIGEJINGZHENGGUODULIRUNXIBODEHONGHAISHICHANG,RUJINDECHONGJIZHIXIA,ZHOURANZHUANXINGYEBINGBUXIANSHI。RUGUOQIYEYOUQIZHONGXIAOQIYEMIANLINSHENGCUNWEIJI,KUANSONGDELILVYIJIJIJIDEXINJIJIAN,NENGFOUZHENZHENGHUIJIZHEIXIEQIYE?KONGPAHENNAN。

ZHIYOUJINLIBANGZHUZHEIXIEQIYEHUOZHE,CAINENGAIGUOYIQING,CAIHUIYOUXINDEJIUYEGANGWEI。RUGUOXUYAOBAOJIUYE,JINYIBUDEJIANZHENGFANGQUANYIJIJIANGFEIJIANSHUI,JIANGSHIWEILAIGONGZUODEZHONGXIN。

此刻,信心,比黄金宝贵。本文仅代表作者本人观点,更多可见作者公号《徐瑾经济人》(ID:econhomo)与《徐瑾财经》(ID:jinfinance)

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